Photo: Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter shakes the hands of eager schoolchildren during his historic trip to Cuba. (May 2002). 

When former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, 86, touches down in Havana today he will confront a situation not totally unlike his last international diplomatic outing.  Replace nuclear weapons with decades of distrust, add in a failing state–run economy and an American in a communist prison, and you have the backdrop against which the thirty-ninth President of the United States enters Cuba for a brief, but potentially powerful three-day visit.

Nine years ago when Carter first visited Cuba, it marked the first time an American president had set foot on the island since Fidel Castro took power. The visit was marked by a public address, broadcast over Cuban radio (and delivered in Spanish), in which President Carter called for the end of the U.S. embargo and lauded the Cuban pro-democracy initiative, the Varela Project.

Since then, and as most Cuba watchers know, significant changes have come to Cuba with many more still on the horizon.  Under President Raul Castro’s watch, Cuba has essentially sworn off the state-led economy as it has precariously existed in Cuba since Fidel Castro took power. The government has pledged to lay off approximately 500,000 state workers, and has granted 171,000 private employment licenses. Next month’s Communist Party Congress, the first to be convened in 14 years, will focus on “the fundamental decisions on updating the Cuban economic model,” and will shed light on how the government plans to reconcile market-oriented reforms with political and social norms of Cuba's communist system.

And just last week, we saw the release of the two remaining prisoners detained during the “Black Spring” crackdown of 2003, during which the Cuban government detained 75 democracy activists and other dissidents.  All 75 have now been freed, and while many were forced in to exile in Spain, others have been permitted to stay in Cuba.  The recent round of prisoner releases should not mollify concerns with systemic violations of human rights in Cuba, but they are a positive step and should be acknowledged as such.

So against this backdrop, President Obama’s recent comments to the Miami Herald were puzzling,  

 “The Cuban government made some gestures about releasing political prisoners and starting some market-based economies with small business opportunities. [But] we haven’t seen as much follow-through as we would like.”

While the U.S. State Department did finally acknowledge the prisoner releases late last week in a written statement, the Administration’s strategy of minimizing the changes occurring in Cuba is not only vexing for those hoping to move the relationship forward, but just plain counterproductive.  No one would argue that the President should hold a prime-time address on the reforms in Cuba, and I’m sure lauding actions of a regime holding an American in its prisons isn’t particularly palatable right now, but intentionally downplaying changes in Cuba sends mixed signals to Havana, particularly as countless U.S. Presidents have predicated major U.S. policy changes on Cuba's releasing political prisoners. 

This is why many are piling hope on to President Carter’s visit this week, the stated aim of which is to "learn about new economic policies and the upcoming (Communist) Party congress and to discuss ways to improve U.S.-Cuba relations.” In pursuit of that objective Carter is slated to meet with President Raul Castro, Cuban Catholic leader, Cardinal Jamie Ortega, and with leaders of the Cuban Jewish community. Carter is also scheduled to give a press conference on Wednesday before he departs. While President Carter travels to Cuba under the auspices of his non-governmental organization, the Carter Center, and not as a representative of the U.S. government, expectations are that he will indeed seek the release of jailed American contractor, Alan Gross. While Gross is not expected to be set free this week, Carter’s talks with Cuban officials could help lay the groundwork for a future release.

So much of the dysfunction of the U.S.-Cuba relationship is rooted in miscommunication. Meanings are misinterpreted and signals are lost. Despite a record of more than 50 years of failure, U.S. policy remains largely stagnant while Americans and Cubans are left to suffer the consequences. President Carter’s arrival in Cuba today provides an opportunity for influential, fresh eyes to assess what is happening in Cuba and how U.S. policy can best advance the interests of Americans and Cubans. One can only hope that Washington will listen.